Finance & Markets · Financial Stability & Stress

Financial Market Stress Observatory

Interactive historical comparison of market stress patterns in 1973, 1978, 2008 and 2026. The tool combines inflation, fiscal deficit and 10-year Treasury yield data into a transparent teaching index to discuss fiscal pressure, monetary constraints and Treasury market dynamics.

What is market stress?

Market stress describes situations in which inflation, interest rates, liquidity, fiscal pressure or risk perception reinforce one another and reduce policy flexibility.

Why these years?

1973, 1978 and 2008 illustrate different historical mechanisms. 2026 is treated as a current/projection comparison, not as a completed historical dataset.

How to read the index

The stress index is a teaching index. It normalizes selected indicators and supports comparison, but it is not a forecast or econometric crisis probability.

Selected year
2026
Fiscal & Treasury stress
Stress index
0
0 = low, 100 = high
Message

Documented indicators with visible values

Inflation (%) Deficit (% GDP) 10Y Treasury (%) Stress index

Why these years?

1973 highlights inflation and policy constraints after an oil shock. 1978 highlights inflation, confidence and rising yields. 2008 highlights financial-system liquidity stress and the availability of aggressive monetary support. 2026 combines fiscal pressure, still-elevated inflation and higher Treasury yields.

Documented data table

YearStress patternInflationDeficit10Y TreasuryStress indexStatus
1973Oil shock & inflation6.2%1.0% GDP6.8%48/100Historical annual data
1978Dollar pressure & rates7.6%2.5% GDP8.4%64/100Historical annual data
2008Credit & liquidity crisis3.8%3.1% GDP3.7%38/100Historical annual data
2026Fiscal & Treasury stress3.8%5.8% GDP4.2%51/100Current/projection data

Sources

  1. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (2026). Market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis [GS10]. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Retrieved May 24, 2026, from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS10
  2. Congressional Budget Office. (2026). The budget and economic outlook: 2026 to 2036. Retrieved May 24, 2026, from https://www.cbo.gov/publication/62105
  3. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2026). Consumer Price Index — April 2026. Retrieved May 24, 2026, from https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
  4. U.S. Office of Management and Budget. (2026). Federal surplus or deficit [-] as percent of gross domestic product [FYFSGDA188S]. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Retrieved May 24, 2026, from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S
  5. World Bank. (2025). Inflation, consumer prices for the United States [FPCPITOTLZGUSA]. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, FRED. Retrieved May 24, 2026, from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGUSA